Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 02, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1861.62
Channels Engaged
107
Predictions Logged
800
Value Picks Flagged
176
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 800 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 107 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 176 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.68 Shamil Gaziev ROI 1.52x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev 1.52x ROI
Shamil Gaziev weighted 1.68 Market 12.87 Crowd 1.61
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Loik Radzhabov vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 1.1x ROI
Loik Radzhabov weighted 1.93 Market 2.39 Crowd 1.95
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev 0.42x ROI
Jairzinho Rozenstruik weighted 2.46 Market 1.02 Crowd 2.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Loik Radzhabov vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 0.85x ROI
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady weighted 2.08 Market 1.58 Crowd 2.06
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Steve Erceg vs Matt Schnell 0.91x ROI
Matt Schnell weighted 6.98 Market 4.35 Crowd 5.71
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 81.8%

Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 370.46
ROI Momentum -3.34
Underdog Specialist 1.7
Favorite Reliability 164.83
Weight-Class Ace 30.53
Regional Familiarity 84.75
Value Pick Signal 104.3
Sample Size Confidence 308.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.