Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 10, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2527.129
Channels Engaged
112
Predictions Logged
1075
Value Picks Flagged
321
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1075 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 112 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 321 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.63 Timothy Cuamba ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Bolaji Oki vs Timothy Cuamba 1.23x ROI
Timothy Cuamba weighted 2.63 Market 6.53 Crowd 2.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Hyder Amil vs Fernie Garcia 1.2x ROI
Hyder Amil weighted 1.11 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Bolaji Oki vs Timothy Cuamba 0.7x ROI
Bolaji Oki weighted 1.61 Market 1.09 Crowd 1.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Hyder Amil vs Fernie Garcia 0.75x ROI
Fernie Garcia weighted 10.42 Market 2.9 Crowd 8.2
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Daniel Marcos vs Aori Qileng 0.78x ROI
Aori Qileng weighted 9.21 Market 3.01 Crowd 6.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 61.5%
Market favourite 61.5%

Jack Hermansson vs Joe Pyfer

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 494.69
ROI Momentum -1.03
Underdog Specialist 8.13
Favorite Reliability 211.7
Weight-Class Ace 54.09
Regional Familiarity 105.6
Value Pick Signal 165.55
Sample Size Confidence 413.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.