Event Selector

UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 20, 2024 Past Toronto, Ontario , Canada Canada Total Weight 2796.416
Channels Engaged
179
Predictions Logged
1279
Value Picks Flagged
330
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1279 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 179 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 330 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.73 Neil Magny ROI 1.12x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Neil Magny vs Mike Malott 1.12x ROI
Neil Magny weighted 2.73 Market 3.99 Crowd 2.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Neil Magny vs Mike Malott 0.84x ROI
Mike Malott weighted 1.58 Market 1.25 Crowd 1.59
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Priscila Cachoeira 0.88x ROI
Priscila Cachoeira weighted 7.79 Market 4.07 Crowd 7.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland 0.89x ROI
Dricus du Plessis weighted 2.36 Market 1.86 Crowd 2.42
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 33.3%
Pure crowd 25.0%
Market favourite 41.7%

Dricus du Plessis vs Sean Strickland

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 525.19
ROI Momentum -7.97
Underdog Specialist 0.66
Favorite Reliability 224.22
Weight-Class Ace 27.21
Regional Familiarity 128.55
Value Pick Signal 180.95
Sample Size Confidence 438.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.