Event Selector

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 16, 2023 Past 19,039 039 Total Weight 2375.449
Channels Engaged
157
Predictions Logged
1081
Value Picks Flagged
297
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1081 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 157 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 297 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.46 Cody Durden ROI 1.27x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden 1.27x ROI
Cody Durden weighted 1.46 Market 2.4 Crowd 1.46
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Tagir Ulanbekov vs Cody Durden 0.68x ROI
Tagir Ulanbekov weighted 3.18 Market 1.57 Crowd 3.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Shamil Gaziev vs Martin Buday 0.81x ROI
Shamil Gaziev weighted 1.69 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.75
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ariane Lipski vs Casey O'Neill 0.85x ROI
Ariane Lipski weighted 3.95 Market 2.47 Crowd 3.64
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 459.78
ROI Momentum -4.71
Underdog Specialist 3.43
Favorite Reliability 175.12
Weight-Class Ace 25.23
Regional Familiarity 110.85
Value Pick Signal 143.15
Sample Size Confidence 381.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.