Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 15, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1429.365
Channels Engaged
59
Predictions Logged
540
Value Picks Flagged
183
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 540 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 59 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 183 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.09 Azat Maksum ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Azat Maksum vs Tyson Nam 1.11x ROI
Azat Maksum weighted 1.09 Market 1.24 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Azat Maksum vs Tyson Nam 0.83x ROI
Tyson Nam weighted 11.99 Market 4.01 Crowd 5.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva 0.86x ROI
Mayra Bueno Silva weighted 3.67 Market 2.4 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Evan Elder vs Genaro Valdez 0.86x ROI
Genaro Valdez weighted 6.56 Market 3.41 Crowd 5.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 91.7%
Pure crowd 91.7%
Market favourite 91.7%

Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 312.05
ROI Momentum -6.81
Underdog Specialist -6.67
Favorite Reliability 124.86
Weight-Class Ace 44.83
Regional Familiarity 70.35
Value Pick Signal 92.75
Sample Size Confidence 258.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.