Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 01, 2023 Past — — Total Weight 1554.203
Channels Engaged
67
Predictions Logged
596
Value Picks Flagged
195
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 596 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 67 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 195 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.28 Sean Strickland ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sean Strickland vs Abusupiyan Magomedov 1.18x ROI
Sean Strickland weighted 1.28 Market 1.64 Crowd 1.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ariane Lipski vs Melissa Gatto 1.16x ROI
Ariane Lipski weighted 1.98 Market 2.92 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Sean Strickland vs Abusupiyan Magomedov 0.78x ROI
Abusupiyan Magomedov weighted 4.62 Market 2.28 Crowd 4.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ariane Lipski vs Melissa Gatto 0.79x ROI
Melissa Gatto weighted 2.02 Market 1.42 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karol Rosa vs Yana Santos 0.8x ROI
Yana Santos weighted 4.64 Market 2.4 Crowd 3.9
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Sean Strickland vs Abusupiyan Magomedov

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 329.33
ROI Momentum 5.47
Underdog Specialist 6.73
Favorite Reliability 143.27
Weight-Class Ace 42.9
Regional Familiarity 67.35
Value Pick Signal 91.35
Sample Size Confidence 271.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.