Event Selector

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 06, 2023 Past Newark, New Jersey , U.S. U S Total Weight 644.14
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
218
Value Picks Flagged
83
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 218 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 83 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.34 Belal Muhammad ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns 1.29x ROI
Belal Muhammad weighted 1.34 Market 2.21 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Devin Clark 1.26x ROI
Kennedy Nzechukwu weighted 1.1 Market 1.53 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Claudio Ribeiro vs Joseph Holmes 1.19x ROI
Claudio Ribeiro weighted 1.21 Market 1.58 Crowd 1.22
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Belal Muhammad vs Gilbert Burns 0.65x ROI
Gilbert Burns weighted 3.94 Market 1.66 Crowd 4.25
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Devin Clark 0.69x ROI
Devin Clark weighted 11.15 Market 2.53 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Claudio Ribeiro vs Joseph Holmes 0.75x ROI
Joseph Holmes weighted 5.8 Market 2.37 Crowd 5.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 157.99
ROI Momentum -1.42
Underdog Specialist -1.53
Favorite Reliability 62.96
Weight-Class Ace 7.64
Regional Familiarity 27.0
Value Pick Signal 42.7
Sample Size Confidence 130.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.