Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 11, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 690.729
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
235
Value Picks Flagged
78
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 235 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 78 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.61 Tony Gravely ROI 1.17x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Victor Henry vs Tony Gravely 1.17x ROI
Tony Gravely weighted 1.61 Market 2.19 Crowd 1.56
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Jonathan Martinez vs Said Nurmagomedov 0.78x ROI
Said Nurmagomedov weighted 1.94 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Victor Henry vs Tony Gravely 0.78x ROI
Victor Henry weighted 2.64 Market 1.68 Crowd 2.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 0.79x ROI
Merab Dvalishvili weighted 8.35 Market 3.04 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 46.2%
Pure crowd 61.5%
Market favourite 46.2%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 171.58
ROI Momentum 0.3
Underdog Specialist -0.36
Favorite Reliability 68.05
Weight-Class Ace 1.66
Regional Familiarity 30.45
Value Pick Signal 43.05
Sample Size Confidence 141.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.