Event Selector

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 04, 2023 Past 19,471 471 Total Weight 769.923
Channels Engaged
22
Predictions Logged
262
Value Picks Flagged
85
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 262 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 22 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 85 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.27 Alexa Grasso ROI 1.3x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 1.3x ROI
Alexa Grasso weighted 2.27 Market 6.89 Crowd 2.1
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tabatha Ricci vs Jessica Penne 1.24x ROI
Tabatha Ricci weighted 1.0 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones 1.13x ROI
Cody Garbrandt weighted 1.3 Market 1.56 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 0.66x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 1.79 Market 1.11 Crowd 1.91
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tabatha Ricci vs Jessica Penne 0.71x ROI
Jessica Penne weighted — Market 3.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Cody Garbrandt vs Trevin Jones 0.82x ROI
Trevin Jones weighted 4.31 Market 2.45 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 92.9%
Pure crowd 92.9%
Market favourite 85.7%

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 184.3
ROI Momentum 1.44
Underdog Specialist 0.65
Favorite Reliability 76.52
Weight-Class Ace 15.97
Regional Familiarity 33.75
Value Pick Signal 44.1
Sample Size Confidence 151.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.