Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 25, 2023 Past — — Total Weight 370.637
Channels Engaged
14
Predictions Logged
121
Value Picks Flagged
50
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 121 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 14 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 50 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.66 Brendan Allen ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Brendan Allen vs André Muniz 1.25x ROI
Brendan Allen weighted 1.66 Market 2.79 Crowd 1.57
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Gabriella Fernandes 1.2x ROI
Gabriella Fernandes weighted 1.3 Market 1.74 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Brendan Allen vs André Muniz 0.71x ROI
André Muniz weighted 2.52 Market 1.46 Crowd 2.75
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Gabriella Fernandes 0.75x ROI
Jasmine Jasudavicius weighted 4.34 Market 2.07 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Augusto Sakai vs Don'Tale Mayes 0.82x ROI
Don'Tale Mayes weighted 3.01 Market 1.96 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 80.0%
Pure crowd 80.0%
Market favourite 70.0%

Brendan Allen vs André Muniz

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 83.57
ROI Momentum -1.53
Underdog Specialist 0.4
Favorite Reliability 39.87
Weight-Class Ace 15.59
Regional Familiarity 14.85
Value Pick Signal 27.3
Sample Size Confidence 69.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.