Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 14, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 528.183
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
175
Value Picks Flagged
64
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 175 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 64 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Daniel Argueta ROI 1.15x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Daniel Argueta vs Nick Aguirre 1.15x ROI
Daniel Argueta weighted 1.0 Market 1.17 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Charles Johnson vs Jimmy Flick 1.14x ROI
Charles Johnson weighted 1.08 Market 1.27 Crowd 1.09
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Daniel Argueta vs Nick Aguirre 0.79x ROI
Nick Aguirre weighted — Market 4.82 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Charles Johnson vs Jimmy Flick 0.81x ROI
Jimmy Flick weighted 13.68 Market 3.73 Crowd 12.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernández 0.82x ROI
Carlos Hernández weighted 9.97 Market 3.62 Crowd 10.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 72.7%

Sean Strickland vs Nassourdine Imavov

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 128.29
ROI Momentum -0.3
Underdog Specialist 1.04
Favorite Reliability 57.57
Weight-Class Ace 8.88
Regional Familiarity 21.9
Value Pick Signal 30.8
Sample Size Confidence 105.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.