Event Selector

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 12, 2022 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 688.826
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
231
Value Picks Flagged
98
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 231 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 98 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.13 Silvana Gómez Juárez ROI 1.35x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gómez Juárez 1.35x ROI
Silvana Gómez Juárez weighted 1.13 Market 1.86 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell 1.16x ROI
Brad Riddell weighted 1.55 Market 2.07 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gómez Juárez 0.6x ROI
Karolina Kowalkiewicz weighted 8.59 Market 1.92 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell 0.79x ROI
Renato Moicano weighted 2.81 Market 1.77 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Matt Frevola vs Ottman Azaitar 0.8x ROI
Matt Frevola weighted 4.25 Market 2.31 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 57.1%

Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 163.1
ROI Momentum 1.53
Underdog Specialist 0.74
Favorite Reliability 59.06
Weight-Class Ace 23.4
Regional Familiarity 30.45
Value Pick Signal 45.15
Sample Size Confidence 134.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.