Event Selector

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 12, 2022 Past New York City, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 904.959
Channels Engaged
33
Predictions Logged
317
Value Picks Flagged
135
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 317 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 33 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 135 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.21 Silvana Gómez Juárez ROI 1.29x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gómez Juárez 1.29x ROI
Silvana Gómez Juárez weighted 1.21 Market 1.86 Crowd 1.22
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Gutiérrez vs Frankie Edgar 1.2x ROI
Frankie Edgar weighted 1.89 Market 3.06 Crowd 1.71
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Silvana Gómez Juárez 0.65x ROI
Karolina Kowalkiewicz weighted 5.78 Market 1.92 Crowd 5.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Chris Gutiérrez vs Frankie Edgar 0.75x ROI
Chris Gutiérrez weighted 2.12 Market 1.39 Crowd 2.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Renato Moicano vs Brad Riddell 0.82x ROI
Renato Moicano weighted 2.64 Market 1.77 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 57.1%

Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 207.7
ROI Momentum 0.23
Underdog Specialist -0.13
Favorite Reliability 77.81
Weight-Class Ace 29.09
Regional Familiarity 40.95
Value Pick Signal 59.5
Sample Size Confidence 172.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.