Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodríguez

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 16, 2022 Past Elmont, New York , U.S. U S Total Weight 542.896
Channels Engaged
16
Predictions Logged
184
Value Picks Flagged
71
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 184 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 16 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 71 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.93 Michelle Waterson ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Amanda Lemos vs Michelle Waterson 1.23x ROI
Michelle Waterson weighted 1.93 Market 3.5 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Matt Schnell vs Su Mudaerji 1.21x ROI
Matt Schnell weighted 1.86 Market 3.08 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Punahele Soriano vs Dalcha Lungiambula 1.2x ROI
Punahele Soriano weighted 1.11 Market 1.44 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Amanda Lemos vs Michelle Waterson 0.72x ROI
Amanda Lemos weighted 2.07 Market 1.3 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Matt Schnell vs Su Mudaerji 0.74x ROI
Su Mudaerji weighted 2.16 Market 1.38 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Punahele Soriano vs Dalcha Lungiambula 0.75x ROI
Dalcha Lungiambula weighted 10.02 Market 2.86 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 41.7%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 41.7%

Yair Rodríguez vs Brian Ortega

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 133.59
ROI Momentum 0.27
Underdog Specialist 0.87
Favorite Reliability 51.27
Weight-Class Ace 1.66
Regional Familiarity 24.45
Value Pick Signal 36.4
Sample Size Confidence 110.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.