Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 04, 2021 Past Total Weight 180.118
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
70
Value Picks Flagged
17
Fight Slots
9
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 70 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 17 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Marc-André Barriault ROI 1.37x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Marc-André Barriault vs Dalcha Lungiambula 1.37x ROI
Marc-André Barriault weighted 1.0 Market 1.59 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac 1.3x ROI
Tom Aspinall weighted 1.0 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Marc-André Barriault vs Dalcha Lungiambula 0.57x ROI
Dalcha Lungiambula weighted — Market 2.35 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tom Aspinall vs Serghei Spivac 0.65x ROI
Serghei Spivac weighted — Market 2.88 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alex Morono vs David Zawada 0.79x ROI
David Zawada weighted 3.85 Market 2.12 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 77.8%
Market favourite 44.4%

Derek Brunson vs Darren Till

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 44.31
ROI Momentum -0.06
Underdog Specialist -0.2
Favorite Reliability 19.92
Weight-Class Ace 2.1
Value Pick Signal 8.05
Sample Size Confidence 36.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.