Event Selector

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 12, 2021 Past Glendale, Arizona , U.S. U S Total Weight 320.629
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
116
Value Picks Flagged
30
Fight Slots
14
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 116 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 30 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.28 Brad Riddell ROI 1.33x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Brad Riddell vs Drew Dober 1.33x ROI
Brad Riddell weighted 1.28 Market 2.24 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Movsar Evloev vs Hakeem Dawodu 1.27x ROI
Hakeem Dawodu weighted 1.62 Market 2.86 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Brad Riddell vs Drew Dober 0.62x ROI
Drew Dober weighted 4.59 Market 1.66 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Movsar Evloev vs Hakeem Dawodu 0.68x ROI
Movsar Evloev weighted 2.62 Market 1.42 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo 0.78x ROI
Brandon Moreno weighted 5.93 Market 2.57 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 14
Weighted model 42.9%
Pure crowd 42.9%
Market favourite 57.1%

Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 75.16
ROI Momentum -0.13
Underdog Specialist -0.53
Favorite Reliability 29.39
Weight-Class Ace 6.4
Regional Familiarity 17.4
Value Pick Signal 15.75
Sample Size Confidence 61.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.