Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Procházka

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 01, 2021 Past Total Weight 236.358
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
90
Value Picks Flagged
31
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 90 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 31 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 KB Bhullar ROI 1.65x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Andreas Michailidis vs KB Bhullar 1.65x ROI
KB Bhullar weighted 1.0 Market 2.82 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Giga Chikadze vs Cub Swanson 1.35x ROI
Giga Chikadze weighted 1.0 Market 1.54 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko 1.26x ROI
Sean Strickland weighted 1.0 Market 1.36 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Andreas Michailidis vs KB Bhullar 0.3x ROI
Andreas Michailidis weighted — Market 1.43 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Giga Chikadze vs Cub Swanson 0.6x ROI
Cub Swanson weighted — Market 2.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Sean Strickland vs Krzysztof Jotko 0.68x ROI
Krzysztof Jotko weighted — Market 3.16 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 80.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Jiří Procházka vs Dominick Reyes

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 57.59
ROI Momentum -0.1
Underdog Specialist -0.05
Favorite Reliability 23.03
Weight-Class Ace 1.24
Value Pick Signal 17.85
Sample Size Confidence 46.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.