Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 17, 2021 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 226.174
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
80
Value Picks Flagged
13
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 80 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 13 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.32 Alexander Munoz ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Luis Peña vs Alexander Munoz 1.32x ROI
Alexander Munoz weighted 1.32 Market 2.3 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tracy Cortez vs Justine Kish 1.24x ROI
Tracy Cortez weighted 1.0 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Luis Peña vs Alexander Munoz 0.64x ROI
Luis Peña weighted 4.08 Market 1.64 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Tracy Cortez vs Justine Kish 0.72x ROI
Justine Kish weighted — Market 3.57 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gerald Meerschaert vs Bartosz Fabiński 0.75x ROI
Gerald Meerschaert weighted 4.06 Market 2.01 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 33.3%
Pure crowd 44.4%
Market favourite 55.6%

Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 52.62
ROI Momentum -0.83
Underdog Specialist -1.07
Favorite Reliability 22.09
Weight-Class Ace 6.26
Regional Familiarity 12.0
Value Pick Signal 11.9
Sample Size Confidence 43.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.