Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 19, 2020 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 189.032
Channels Engaged
6
Predictions Logged
72
Value Picks Flagged
11
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 72 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 6 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 11 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Jamie Pickett ROI 1.72x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett 1.72x ROI
Jamie Pickett weighted 1.0 Market 3.62 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden 1.39x ROI
Jimmy Flick weighted 1.0 Market 1.63 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks 1.26x ROI
Sijara Eubanks weighted 1.42 Market 2.26 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett 0.23x ROI
Tafon Nchukwi weighted — Market 1.29 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden 0.56x ROI
Cody Durden weighted — Market 2.27 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks 0.66x ROI
Pannie Kianzad weighted 3.38 Market 1.58 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 58.3%

Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 43.14
ROI Momentum -0.12
Underdog Specialist -0.05
Favorite Reliability 20.16
Regional Familiarity 10.8
Value Pick Signal 7.7
Sample Size Confidence 35.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.