Event Selector

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 12, 2020 Past Total Weight 278.25
Channels Engaged
9
Predictions Logged
101
Value Picks Flagged
31
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 101 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 9 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 31 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Billy Quarantillo ROI 1.36x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Gavin Tucker vs Billy Quarantillo 1.36x ROI
Billy Quarantillo weighted 1.0 Market 1.56 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Gavin Tucker vs Billy Quarantillo 0.58x ROI
Gavin Tucker weighted — Market 2.41 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kevin Holland vs Ronaldo Souza 0.73x ROI
Ronaldo Souza weighted 3.81 Market 1.86 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Cub Swanson vs Daniel Pineda 0.74x ROI
Cub Swanson weighted 5.59 Market 2.28 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 9
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 44.4%

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 66.45
ROI Momentum -0.06
Underdog Specialist 0.03
Favorite Reliability 31.16
Weight-Class Ace 7.57
Value Pick Signal 17.5
Sample Size Confidence 54.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.