Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 12, 2020 Past Total Weight 177.734
Channels Engaged
6
Predictions Logged
65
Value Picks Flagged
8
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 65 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 6 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 8 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Julia Avila ROI 1.55x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sijara Eubanks vs Julia Avila 1.55x ROI
Julia Avila weighted 1.0 Market 2.22 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill 1.44x ROI
Angela Hill weighted 1.0 Market 1.8 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Sijara Eubanks vs Julia Avila 0.38x ROI
Sijara Eubanks weighted — Market 1.6 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill 0.51x ROI
Michelle Waterson weighted — Market 2.04 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Ed Herman vs Mike Rodríguez 0.67x ROI
Ed Herman weighted — Market 3.02 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 54.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 36.4%

Michelle Waterson vs Angela Hill

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 44.04
ROI Momentum -0.24
Underdog Specialist -0.41
Favorite Reliability 20.86
Weight-Class Ace 5.14
Value Pick Signal 7.35
Sample Size Confidence 36.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.