Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakić

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 29, 2020 Past Total Weight 206.129
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
81
Value Picks Flagged
16
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 81 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 16 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.41 Polyana Viana ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Polyana Viana vs Emily Whitmire 1.24x ROI
Polyana Viana weighted 1.41 Market 2.11 Crowd 1.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mallory Martin vs Hannah Cifers 1.19x ROI
Hannah Cifers weighted 2.07 Market 3.44 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Aleksandar Rakić vs Anthony Smith 1.14x ROI
Aleksandar Rakić weighted 1.15 Market 1.37 Crowd 1.2
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Polyana Viana vs Emily Whitmire 0.71x ROI
Emily Whitmire weighted 3.46 Market 1.72 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Mallory Martin vs Hannah Cifers 0.76x ROI
Mallory Martin weighted 1.94 Market 1.32 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Aleksandar Rakić vs Anthony Smith 0.81x ROI
Anthony Smith weighted 7.51 Market 3.14 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 100.0%
Pure crowd 100.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Aleksandar Rakić vs Anthony Smith

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 52.65
ROI Momentum -0.32
Underdog Specialist -0.75
Favorite Reliability 17.75
Weight-Class Ace 2.46
Value Pick Signal 10.15
Sample Size Confidence 43.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.