Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 20, 2020 Past Total Weight 178.805
Channels Engaged
7
Predictions Logged
64
Value Picks Flagged
21
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 64 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 7 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 21 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Lyman Good ROI 1.5x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Good 1.5x ROI
Lyman Good weighted 1.0 Market 2.0 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marc-André Barriault vs Oskar Piechota 1.47x ROI
Marc-André Barriault weighted 1.0 Market 1.9 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts 1.24x ROI
Jim Miller weighted 1.78 Market 3.08 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Good 0.45x ROI
Belal Muhammad weighted — Market 1.81 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marc-André Barriault vs Oskar Piechota 0.47x ROI
Oskar Piechota weighted — Market 1.9 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts 0.72x ROI
Roosevelt Roberts weighted 2.27 Market 1.38 Crowd 2.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 63.6%
Pure crowd 63.6%
Market favourite 36.4%

Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 44.97
ROI Momentum -0.28
Underdog Specialist -0.5
Favorite Reliability 17.69
Weight-Class Ace 3.38
Value Pick Signal 12.95
Sample Size Confidence 36.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.