Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 13, 2020 Past Total Weight 100.366
Channels Engaged
6
Predictions Logged
38
Value Picks Flagged
10
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 38 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 6 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 10 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Cynthia Calvillo ROI 1.44x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Cynthia Calvillo vs Jessica Eye 1.44x ROI
Cynthia Calvillo weighted 1.0 Market 1.77 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa 1.37x ROI
Jordan Espinosa weighted 1.0 Market 1.58 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar 1.36x ROI
Kevin Aguilar weighted 1.0 Market 1.56 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Cynthia Calvillo vs Jessica Eye 0.51x ROI
Jessica Eye weighted — Market 2.03 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jordan Espinosa vs Mark De La Rosa 0.58x ROI
Mark De La Rosa weighted — Market 2.4 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Charles Rosa vs Kevin Aguilar 0.59x ROI
Charles Rosa weighted — Market 2.44 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 80.0%
Market favourite 40.0%

Cynthia Calvillo vs Jessica Eye

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 25.13
ROI Momentum 0.07
Underdog Specialist -0.18
Favorite Reliability 10.77
Weight-Class Ace 1.28
Value Pick Signal 4.9
Sample Size Confidence 20.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.