Event Selector

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 24, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 6357.72
Channels Engaged
563
Predictions Logged
3889
Value Picks Flagged
192
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3889 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 563 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 192 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.33 Charles Johnson ROI 1.12x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson 1.12x ROI
Charles Johnson weighted 1.33 Market 1.59 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong 1.12x ROI
Sean O'Malley weighted 1.26 Market 1.48 Crowd 1.26
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson 0.83x ROI
Alex Perez weighted 4.01 Market 2.37 Crowd 3.55
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong 0.83x ROI
Song Yadong weighted 4.9 Market 2.67 Crowd 4.91
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman 0.85x ROI
Denzel Freeman weighted 5.6 Market 3.03 Crowd 5.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 72.7%

Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 939.69
ROI Momentum -40.52
Underdog Specialist -14.69
Favorite Reliability 440.49
Weight-Class Ace 53.56
Regional Familiarity 220.65
Value Pick Signal 82.95
Sample Size Confidence 786.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.