Event Selector

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 07, 2026 Past Las Vegas , Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 6100.866
Channels Engaged
400
Predictions Logged
3157
Value Picks Flagged
241
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3157 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 400 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 241 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Rafael Tobias ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay 1.21x ROI
Rafael Tobias weighted 1.16 Market 1.54 Crowd 1.18
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long 1.16x ROI
Cody Garbrandt weighted 1.73 Market 2.37 Crowd 1.61
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay 0.74x ROI
Diyar Nurgozhay weighted 7.09 Market 2.51 Crowd 6.48
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long 0.79x ROI
Xiao Long weighted 2.37 Market 1.59 Crowd 2.63
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson 0.81x ROI
Drew Dober weighted 2.24 Market 1.56 Crowd 2.41
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 66.7%

Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 1159.29
ROI Momentum -54.47
Underdog Specialist -10.68
Favorite Reliability 441.68
Weight-Class Ace 138.59
Regional Familiarity 197.4
Value Pick Signal 101.85
Sample Size Confidence 970.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.