Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 14, 2025 Past Atlanta, Georgia , U.S. U S Total Weight 6363.212
Channels Engaged
472
Predictions Logged
3498
Value Picks Flagged
695
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 3498 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 472 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 695 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Vanessa Demopoulos ROI 1.81x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Vanessa Demopoulos 1.81x ROI
Vanessa Demopoulos weighted 1.0 Market 5.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ricky Simón vs Cameron Smotherman 1.78x ROI
Cameron Smotherman weighted 1.0 Market 4.47 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Philip Rowe vs Ange Loosa 1.29x ROI
Philip Rowe weighted 2.28 Market 6.94 Crowd 2.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Vanessa Demopoulos 0.14x ROI
Jamey-Lyn Horth weighted — Market 1.16 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ricky Simón vs Cameron Smotherman 0.17x ROI
Ricky Simón weighted — Market 1.21 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Philip Rowe vs Ange Loosa 0.63x ROI
Ange Loosa weighted 1.78 Market 1.08 Crowd 1.86
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 41.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 981.41
ROI Momentum -26.49
Underdog Specialist -1.61
Favorite Reliability 366.37
Weight-Class Ace 71.42
Regional Familiarity 272.1
Value Pick Signal 379.4
Sample Size Confidence 822.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.