Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 03, 2025 Past Des Moines, Iowa , U.S. U S Total Weight 2396.669
Channels Engaged
159
Predictions Logged
1107
Value Picks Flagged
273
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1107 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 159 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 273 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.34 Gastón Bolaños ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Quang Le vs Gastón Bolaños 1.18x ROI
Gastón Bolaños weighted 1.34 Market 1.78 Crowd 1.37
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Juliana Miller vs Ivana Petrović 1.17x ROI
Ivana Petrović weighted 1.13 Market 1.38 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Quang Le vs Gastón Bolaños 0.77x ROI
Quang Le weighted 3.9 Market 2.05 Crowd 3.71
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Juliana Miller vs Ivana Petrović 0.77x ROI
Juliana Miller weighted 8.99 Market 2.93 Crowd 9.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Serhiy Sidey vs Cameron Smotherman 0.85x ROI
Serhiy Sidey weighted 2.25 Market 1.68 Crowd 2.48
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Cory Sandhagen vs Deiveson Figueiredo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 463.73
ROI Momentum -9.27
Underdog Specialist -4.09
Favorite Reliability 191.79
Weight-Class Ace 37.05
Regional Familiarity 98.7
Value Pick Signal 127.75
Sample Size Confidence 384.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.