Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Mar 22, 2025 Past London , England , UK United Kingdom Total Weight 2526.518
Channels Engaged
215
Predictions Logged
1261
Value Picks Flagged
327
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1261 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 215 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 327 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.26 Nathan Fletcher ROI 1.22x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Caolán Loughran vs Nathan Fletcher 1.22x ROI
Nathan Fletcher weighted 1.26 Market 1.75 Crowd 1.26
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Chris Duncan vs Jordan Vucenic 1.16x ROI
Chris Duncan weighted 2.53 Market 4.26 Crowd 2.45
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Caolán Loughran vs Nathan Fletcher 0.73x ROI
Caolán Loughran weighted 4.9 Market 2.1 Crowd 4.8
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Chris Duncan vs Jordan Vucenic 0.8x ROI
Jordan Vucenic weighted 1.65 Market 1.24 Crowd 1.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Kevin Holland vs Gunnar Nelson 0.81x ROI
Gunnar Nelson weighted 2.77 Market 1.82 Crowd 2.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 61.5%
Pure crowd 46.2%
Market favourite 46.2%

Sean Brady vs Leon Edwards

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 427.53
ROI Momentum -4.49
Underdog Specialist -0.44
Favorite Reliability 181.62
Weight-Class Ace 32.09
Regional Familiarity 121.2
Value Pick Signal 154.0
Sample Size Confidence 354.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.