Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 22, 2025 Past Seattle, Washington , U.S. U S Total Weight 2333.593
Channels Engaged
182
Predictions Logged
1100
Value Picks Flagged
288
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1100 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 182 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 288 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.41 Andre Fili ROI 1.22x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Melquizael Costa vs Andre Fili 1.22x ROI
Andre Fili weighted 1.41 Market 2.05 Crowd 1.37
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Austin Vanderford vs Nikolay Veretennikov 1.14x ROI
Austin Vanderford weighted 1.52 Market 1.93 Crowd 1.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Melquizael Costa vs Andre Fili 0.73x ROI
Melquizael Costa weighted 3.42 Market 1.77 Crowd 3.73
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Austin Vanderford vs Nikolay Veretennikov 0.81x ROI
Nikolay Veretennikov weighted 2.93 Market 1.88 Crowd 2.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Rob Font vs Jean Matsumoto 0.84x ROI
Jean Matsumoto weighted 2.19 Market 1.62 Crowd 2.35
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 66.7%

Song Yadong vs Henry Cejudo

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 432.21
ROI Momentum -5.58
Underdog Specialist 3.05
Favorite Reliability 171.27
Weight-Class Ace 44.54
Regional Familiarity 93.0
Value Pick Signal 135.1
Sample Size Confidence 360.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.