Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Nov 09, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1941.081
Channels Engaged
159
Predictions Logged
868
Value Picks Flagged
210
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 868 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 159 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 210 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.19 Charles Radtke ROI 1.22x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Charles Radtke vs Matthew Semelsberger 1.22x ROI
Charles Radtke weighted 1.19 Market 1.62 Crowd 1.26
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Reinier de Ridder vs Gerald Meerschaert 1.18x ROI
Gerald Meerschaert weighted 2.15 Market 3.54 Crowd 2.15
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Charles Radtke vs Matthew Semelsberger 0.72x ROI
Matthew Semelsberger weighted 6.26 Market 2.29 Crowd 4.78
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Reinier de Ridder vs Gerald Meerschaert 0.76x ROI
Reinier de Ridder weighted 1.87 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.87
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tresean Gore vs Antonio Trócoli 0.8x ROI
Antonio Trócoli weighted 4.69 Market 2.43 Crowd 4.17
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 90.9%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 81.8%

Carlos Prates vs Neil Magny

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 376.89
ROI Momentum -8.7
Underdog Specialist -9.84
Favorite Reliability 164.04
Weight-Class Ace 36.04
Regional Familiarity 90.3
Value Pick Signal 112.35
Sample Size Confidence 312.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.