Event Selector

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Sep 14, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 1075.851
Channels Engaged
64
Predictions Logged
426
Value Picks Flagged
84
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 426 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 64 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 84 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.22 Ronaldo Rodríguez ROI 1.18x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs Ode' Osbourne 1.18x ROI
Ronaldo Rodríguez weighted 1.22 Market 1.57 Crowd 1.3
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Ronaldo Rodríguez vs Ode' Osbourne 0.77x ROI
Ode' Osbourne weighted 5.45 Market 2.44 Crowd 4.29
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso 0.87x ROI
Valentina Shevchenko weighted 2.88 Market 2.11 Crowd 2.44
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Manuel Torres 0.88x ROI
Manuel Torres weighted 2.26 Market 1.76 Crowd 2.56
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 50.0%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 60.0%

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 233.89
ROI Momentum -0.71
Underdog Specialist 0.13
Favorite Reliability 110.95
Weight-Class Ace 20.1
Regional Familiarity 50.55
Value Pick Signal 42.35
Sample Size Confidence 192.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.