Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 10, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 724.841
Channels Engaged
36
Predictions Logged
264
Value Picks Flagged
80
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 264 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 36 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 80 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.21 Chelsea Chandler ROI 1.39x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler 1.39x ROI
Chelsea Chandler weighted 2.21 Market 15.91 Crowd 1.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov 1.19x ROI
Danny Barlow weighted 1.0 Market 1.24 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler 0.56x ROI
Yana Santos weighted 1.83 Market 1.01 Crowd 2.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 4
Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov 0.76x ROI
Nikolay Veretennikov weighted — Market 4.11 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad 0.8x ROI
Pannie Kianzad weighted 6.09 Market 2.78 Crowd 6.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 60.0%
Market favourite 80.0%

Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 172.44
ROI Momentum -0.35
Underdog Specialist 1.0
Favorite Reliability 71.9
Weight-Class Ace 0.75
Regional Familiarity 28.8
Value Pick Signal 44.1
Sample Size Confidence 142.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.