Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Aug 10, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 659.751
Channels Engaged
27
Predictions Logged
232
Value Picks Flagged
68
Fight Slots
10
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 232 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 27 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 68 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.59 Chelsea Chandler ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler 1.32x ROI
Chelsea Chandler weighted 2.59 Market 15.91 Crowd 2.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura 1.2x ROI
Marcin Tybura weighted 1.54 Market 2.25 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov 1.19x ROI
Danny Barlow weighted 1.0 Market 1.24 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler 0.62x ROI
Yana Santos weighted 1.63 Market 1.01 Crowd 1.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 4
Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura 0.75x ROI
Serghei Spivac weighted 2.84 Market 1.65 Crowd 3.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Danny Barlow vs Nikolay Veretennikov 0.76x ROI
Nikolay Veretennikov weighted — Market 4.11 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 70.0%
Market favourite 80.0%

Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 159.17
ROI Momentum 2.74
Underdog Specialist 2.26
Favorite Reliability 65.58
Regional Familiarity 27.3
Value Pick Signal 39.9
Sample Size Confidence 130.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.