Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 20, 2024 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 2382.601
Channels Engaged
130
Predictions Logged
1046
Value Picks Flagged
346
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1046 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 130 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 346 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.37 Luana Carolina ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Luana Carolina vs Lucie Pudilová 1.19x ROI
Luana Carolina weighted 1.37 Market 1.85 Crowd 1.31
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Thomas Petersen vs Mohammed Usman 1.16x ROI
Mohammed Usman weighted 1.4 Market 1.81 Crowd 1.45
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Luana Carolina vs Lucie Pudilová 0.75x ROI
Lucie Pudilová weighted 3.71 Market 1.92 Crowd 4.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Thomas Petersen vs Mohammed Usman 0.77x ROI
Thomas Petersen weighted 3.5 Market 1.94 Crowd 3.22
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Trey Ogden vs Loik Radzhabov 0.84x ROI
Loik Radzhabov weighted 2.6 Market 1.84 Crowd 2.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 54.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 36.4%

Virna Jandiroba vs Amanda Lemos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 482.32
ROI Momentum -2.45
Underdog Specialist 3.37
Favorite Reliability 160.68
Weight-Class Ace 27.12
Regional Familiarity 100.8
Value Pick Signal 162.75
Sample Size Confidence 402.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.