Event Selector

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 04, 2024 Past Rio de Janeiro , Brazil Brazil Total Weight 2833.196
Channels Engaged
158
Predictions Logged
1232
Value Picks Flagged
281
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1232 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 158 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 281 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.35 Alessandro Costa ROI 1.19x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas 1.19x ROI
Alessandro Costa weighted 1.35 Market 1.82 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Caio Borralho vs Paul Craig 1.16x ROI
Paul Craig weighted 2.84 Market 5.21 Crowd 2.73
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Alessandro Costa vs Kevin Borjas 0.75x ROI
Kevin Borjas weighted 3.84 Market 1.97 Crowd 3.58
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Caio Borralho vs Paul Craig 0.79x ROI
Caio Borralho weighted 1.54 Market 1.16 Crowd 1.58
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Dione Barbosa vs Ernesta KareckaitÄ— 0.83x ROI
Dione Barbosa weighted 1.83 Market 1.41 Crowd 1.94
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 13
Weighted model 92.3%
Pure crowd 92.3%
Market favourite 84.6%

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg

Market Snapshot

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Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 549.07
ROI Momentum -3.51
Underdog Specialist -4.37
Favorite Reliability 222.13
Weight-Class Ace 80.92
Regional Familiarity 131.7
Value Pick Signal 170.45
Sample Size Confidence 454.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.