Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 06, 2024 Past — — Total Weight 2001.165
Channels Engaged
99
Predictions Logged
767
Value Picks Flagged
283
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 767 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 99 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 283 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.11 Victor Hugo ROI 1.32x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Victor Hugo vs Pedro Falcão 1.32x ROI
Victor Hugo weighted 1.11 Market 1.72 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Christos Giagos 1.15x ROI
Ignacio Bahamondes weighted 1.08 Market 1.29 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Victor Hugo vs Pedro Falcão 0.63x ROI
Pedro Falcão weighted 10.35 Market 2.16 Crowd 8.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Christos Giagos 0.8x ROI
Christos Giagos weighted 12.81 Market 3.59 Crowd 8.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
César Almeida vs Dylan Budka 0.8x ROI
Dylan Budka weighted 2.45 Market 1.65 Crowd 2.69
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 58.3%

Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 436.8
ROI Momentum -7.07
Underdog Specialist 6.5
Favorite Reliability 169.59
Weight-Class Ace 50.54
Regional Familiarity 82.2
Value Pick Signal 130.2
Sample Size Confidence 365.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.