SHARP SIGNAL
UFC Freedom 250 poster
FREEDOM 250
14
JUN
2026
VS
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane
UFC Freedom 250

UFC Freedom 250

2026-06-14 / Washington, D.C. , U.S.
7 priced fights. 7 bet candidates. Market prices are compared against blended crowd, ROI cohort, and specialist fair odds.
7 Bet candidates
7 High conviction
8 Prop edges
15.4% Avg edge
887 Signal inputs
PROP RADAR

Method props from channel picks and Polymarket

217 method picks 25 Polymarket prices
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane Alex Pereira by KO/TKO Fair $1.53 Polymarket $2.38 Edge 55.9% View all Hide
Maurício Ruffy vs Michael Chandler Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO
Fair $1.07 Poly $1.47 37.8% edge
Maurício Ruffy vs Michael Chandler Fight won by KO/TKO
Fair $1.07 Poly $1.46 36.9% edge
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane Fight won by KO/TKO
Fair $1.53 Poly $1.79 17.3% edge
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Fight won by Decision
Fair $2.60 Poly $2.82 8.5% edge
Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi Fight won by KO/TKO
Fair $2.43 Poly $2.63 8.3% edge
Sean O'Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO
Fair $2.43 Poly $2.50 2.9% edge
DECISION QUEUE

7 fights - sorted by edge

SORT
01 Alex Pereira 13-3-0 VS Ciryl Gane 13-2-0 Bet Alex Pereira 44.2% Edge $1.95 fair $1.35 Prop edge Alex Pereira by KO/TKO Fair $1.53 Odds $2.38 Edge 55.9% +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.32
76.0% implied
100 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.27
78.9% implied
10 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.62
61.8% implied
22 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.35
73.9% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.35
Crowd 53.2%
ROI Top 10% 26.9%
Specialists 19.9%
Blended fair $1.35 73.9% implied
Best bookmaker $1.95
Edge vs book 44.2% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Alex Pereira
US $1.95 / $1.95
US2 $1.93 / $1.91
AU $1.95 / $1.92
UK $1.93 / $1.90
EU $1.99 / $1.95
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
29 extracted method picks / 5 Polymarket prices
KO Alex Pereira by KO/TKO 19 picks / fair $1.53 / Poly $2.38
KO Alex Pereira by KO/TKO 19 picks Fair $1.53 Polymarket $2.38 Edge 55.9%
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 19 picks Fair $1.53 Polymarket $1.79 Edge 17.3%
DEC Fight won by Decision 9 picks Fair $3.22 Polymarket $2.74 Edge -15.0%
SUB Fight won by Submission 1 picks Fair $29.00 Polymarket $4.88 Edge -83.2%
DEC Ciryl Gane by Decision 7 picks Fair $4.14 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Alex Pereira by Decision 2 picks Fair $14.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Lucrative James Stance: orthodox wt 4.25 ROI cohort + Specialists 12.2% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 164 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night Vs striker wt 4.04 ROI cohort + Specialists 18.9% Specialty ROI 71.7% acc 92 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Vs striker wt 3.99 ROI cohort + Specialists 22.0% Specialty ROI 68.6% acc 102 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Vs striker wt 3.76 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.1% Specialty ROI 71.6% acc 102 specialty bets
Artem MMA ROI cohort pick: Alex Pereira wt 2.26 ROI cohort 9.9% ROI cohort ROI 65.9% acc 508 history bets
We Want Picks Vs striker wt 2.17 Specialists 17.0% Specialty ROI 67.1% acc 152 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Alex Pereira
Heavyweight / Fight card
$1.95
Best odds
44.2%
Edge
132
Specialist picks
Best at →
02 Diego Lopes 27-8-0 VS Steve Garcia 19-5-0 Bet Diego Lopes 14.8% Edge $1.68 fair $1.46 Prop edge Fight won by Decision Fair $2.60 Odds $2.82 Edge 8.5% +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.71
58.4% implied
89 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.23
81.5% implied
10 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.31
76.6% implied
24 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.46
68.3% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.46
Crowd 52.9%
ROI Top 10% 26.9%
Specialists 20.2%
Blended fair $1.46 68.3% implied
Best bookmaker $1.68
Edge vs book 14.8% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Diego Lopes
US $1.68 / $2.40
US2 $1.65 / $2.30
AU $1.67 / $2.35
UK $1.67 / $2.25
EU $1.68 / $2.40
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
26 extracted method picks / 5 Polymarket prices
DEC Fight won by Decision 10 picks / fair $2.60 / Poly $2.82
DEC Fight won by Decision 10 picks Fair $2.60 Polymarket $2.82 Edge 8.5%
KO Diego Lopes by KO/TKO 8 picks Fair $3.25 Polymarket $3.12 Edge -4.0%
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 11 picks Fair $2.36 Polymarket $2.17 Edge -8.2%
SUB Fight won by Submission 5 picks Fair $5.20 Polymarket $3.70 Edge -28.9%
KO Steve Garcia by KO/TKO 3 picks Fair $8.67 Polymarket $3.23 Edge -62.7%
DEC Steve Garcia by Decision 6 picks Fair $4.33 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Style: grappler wt 4.51 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.3% Specialty ROI 68.1% acc 254 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night Vs striker wt 4.09 ROI cohort + Specialists 18.9% Specialty ROI 71.7% acc 92 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Vs striker wt 3.98 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.1% Specialty ROI 71.6% acc 102 specialty bets
JakeGerberMMA Style: grappler wt 2.33 Specialists 19.5% Specialty ROI 73.4% acc 143 specialty bets
We Want Picks Vs striker wt 2.30 Specialists 17.0% Specialty ROI 67.1% acc 152 specialty bets
Clenbat Vs striker wt 2.06 Specialists 8.7% Specialty ROI 66.4% acc 110 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Diego Lopes
Featherweight / Fight card
$1.68
Best odds
14.8%
Edge
123
Specialist picks
Best at →
03 Sean O'Malley 19-3-0 VS Aiemann Zahabi 14-2-0 Bet Sean O'Malley 14.0% Edge $1.23 fair $1.08 Prop edge Fight won by KO/TKO Fair $2.43 Odds $2.63 Edge 8.3% +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.13
88.2% implied
85 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
8 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.05
95.4% implied
20 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.08
92.7% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.08
Crowd 53.8%
ROI Top 10% 25.0%
Specialists 21.2%
Blended fair $1.08 92.7% implied
Best bookmaker $1.23
Edge vs book 14.0% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Sean O'Malley
US $1.23 / $4.60
US2 $1.22 / $4.50
AU $1.22 / $4.50
UK $1.22 / $4.50
EU $1.25 / $4.51
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
34 extracted method picks / 5 Polymarket prices
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 14 picks / fair $2.43 / Poly $2.63
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 14 picks Fair $2.43 Polymarket $2.63 Edge 8.3%
KO Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO 14 picks Fair $2.43 Polymarket $2.50 Edge 2.9%
DEC Fight won by Decision 20 picks Fair $1.70 Polymarket $1.68 Edge -1.2%
DEC Sean O'Malley by Decision 20 picks Fair $1.70 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Fight won by Submission 0 picks Fair - Polymarket $6.67 Edge -%
KO Aiemann Zahabi by KO/TKO 0 picks Fair - Polymarket $22.22 Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
MMA Lock of the Night ROI cohort pick: Sean O'Malley wt 4.14 ROI cohort + Specialists 5.3% ROI cohort ROI 63.8% acc 550 history bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Weight class: Bantamweight wt 3.86 ROI cohort + Specialists 14.2% Specialty ROI 61.4% acc 57 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Weight class: Bantamweight wt 3.78 ROI cohort + Specialists 10.1% Specialty ROI 67.6% acc 68 specialty bets
Artem MMA ROI cohort pick: Sean O'Malley wt 2.26 ROI cohort 9.9% ROI cohort ROI 65.9% acc 508 history bets
138 MMA Weight class: Bantamweight wt 2.10 Specialists 28.1% Specialty ROI 80.0% acc 40 specialty bets
Clenbat Stance: switch wt 2.07 Specialists 7.5% Specialty ROI 64.4% acc 87 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Sean O'Malley
Bantamweight / Fight card
$1.23
Best odds
14.0%
Edge
113
Specialist picks
Best at →
04 Maurício Ruffy 13-2-0 VS Michael Chandler 23-10-0 Bet Maurício Ruffy 12.9% Edge $1.17 fair $1.04 Prop edge Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO Fair $1.07 Odds $1.47 Edge 37.8% +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.07
93.5% implied
92 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
9 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
25 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.04
96.5% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.04
Crowd 53.5%
ROI Top 10% 25.7%
Specialists 20.8%
Blended fair $1.04 96.5% implied
Best bookmaker $1.17
Edge vs book 12.9% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Maurício Ruffy
US $1.17 / $6.00
US2 $1.17 / $5.90
AU $1.16 / $6.20
UK $1.16 / $5.50
EU $1.16 / $6.10
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
32 extracted method picks / 5 Polymarket prices
KO Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO 30 picks / fair $1.07 / Poly $1.47
KO Maurício Ruffy by KO/TKO 30 picks Fair $1.07 Polymarket $1.47 Edge 37.8%
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 30 picks Fair $1.07 Polymarket $1.46 Edge 36.9%
SUB Fight won by Submission 1 picks Fair $32.00 Polymarket $5.26 Edge -83.6%
DEC Fight won by Decision 1 picks Fair $32.00 Polymarket $5.00 Edge -84.4%
SUB Michael Chandler by Submission 1 picks Fair $32.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Maurício Ruffy by Decision 1 picks Fair $32.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Stance: orthodox wt 4.53 ROI cohort + Specialists 10.8% Specialty ROI 66.1% acc 351 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night Weight class: Lightweight wt 3.91 ROI cohort + Specialists 18.5% Specialty ROI 63.2% acc 57 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Favorites <= 1.16 wt 3.74 ROI cohort + Specialists 5.8% Specialty ROI 76.7% acc 287 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Favorites <= 1.13 wt 3.69 ROI cohort + Specialists 3.8% Specialty ROI 76.1% acc 377 specialty bets
138 MMA Favorites <= 1.16 wt 2.13 Specialists 3.2% Specialty ROI 74.8% acc 234 specialty bets
THE MMA GURU Stance: orthodox wt 1.94 Specialists 5.4% Specialty ROI 61.8% acc 304 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Maurício Ruffy
Lightweight / Fight card
$1.17
Best odds
12.9%
Edge
126
Specialist picks
Best at →
05 Ilia Topuria 17-0-0 VS Justin Gaethje 27-5-0 Bet Ilia Topuria 11.9% Edge $1.20 fair $1.07 Prop edge Fight won by KO/TKO Fair $1.29 Odds $1.32 Edge 2.7% +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.13
88.3% implied
103 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.00
100.0% implied
11 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.03
97.0% implied
33 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.07
93.2% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.07
Crowd 52.7%
ROI Top 10% 26.6%
Specialists 20.7%
Blended fair $1.07 93.2% implied
Best bookmaker $1.20
Edge vs book 11.9% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Ilia Topuria
US $1.20 / $5.30
US2 $1.19 / $5.00
AU $1.20 / $5.20
UK $1.20 / $5.00
EU $1.24 / $5.25
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
27 extracted method picks / 5 Polymarket prices
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 21 picks / fair $1.29 / Poly $1.32
KO Fight won by KO/TKO 21 picks Fair $1.29 Polymarket $1.32 Edge 2.7%
KO Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO 19 picks Fair $1.42 Polymarket $1.42 Edge -0.1%
SUB Fight won by Submission 4 picks Fair $6.75 Polymarket $5.26 Edge -22.1%
DEC Fight won by Decision 2 picks Fair $13.50 Polymarket $6.67 Edge -50.6%
KO Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO 2 picks Fair $13.50 Polymarket $6.25 Edge -53.7%
SUB Ilia Topuria by Submission 4 picks Fair $6.75 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Style: grappler wt 4.76 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.3% Specialty ROI 68.1% acc 254 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night Vs striker wt 4.12 ROI cohort + Specialists 18.9% Specialty ROI 71.7% acc 92 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Vs striker wt 3.94 ROI cohort + Specialists 22.0% Specialty ROI 68.6% acc 102 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Vs striker wt 3.81 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.1% Specialty ROI 71.6% acc 102 specialty bets
We Want Picks Vs striker wt 2.30 Specialists 17.0% Specialty ROI 67.1% acc 152 specialty bets
JakeGerberMMA Style: grappler wt 2.06 Specialists 19.5% Specialty ROI 73.4% acc 143 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Ilia Topuria
Lightweight / Fight card
$1.20
Best odds
11.9%
Edge
147
Specialist picks
Best at →
06 Josh Hokit 9-0-0 VS Derrick Lewis 29-13-0 Bet Josh Hokit 5.2% Edge $1.25 fair $1.19 Prop edge Josh Hokit by KO/TKO Fair $1.31 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.25
80.2% implied
91 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.14
87.9% implied
8 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.11
89.7% implied
24 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.19
84.1% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.19
Crowd 54.2%
ROI Top 10% 24.5%
Specialists 21.3%
Blended fair $1.19 84.1% implied
Best bookmaker $1.25
Edge vs book 5.2% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Josh Hokit
US $1.25 / $4.50
US2 $1.24 / $4.25
AU $1.24 / $4.30
UK $1.25 / $4.50
EU $1.25 / $4.51
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
34 extracted method picks
KO Josh Hokit by KO/TKO 26 picks / fair $1.31
KO Josh Hokit by KO/TKO 26 picks Fair $1.31 Polymarket - Edge -%
KO Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO 6 picks Fair $5.67 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Josh Hokit by Submission 1 picks Fair $34.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Josh Hokit by Decision 1 picks Fair $34.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Weight class: Heavyweight wt 4.39 ROI cohort + Specialists 11.4% Specialty ROI 72.2% acc 36 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night ROI cohort pick: Josh Hokit wt 3.95 ROI cohort + Specialists 5.3% ROI cohort ROI 63.8% acc 550 history bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Weight class: Heavyweight wt 3.81 ROI cohort + Specialists 9.3% Specialty ROI 76.9% acc 39 specialty bets
Santino DeFranco Favorites <= 1.23 wt 2.18 Specialists 4.2% Specialty ROI 75.5% acc 200 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Favorites <= 1.23 wt 2.07 Specialists 1.3% Specialty ROI 75.0% acc 488 specialty bets
THE MMA GURU Stance: orthodox wt 1.94 Specialists 5.4% Specialty ROI 61.8% acc 304 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Josh Hokit
Heavyweight / Fight card
$1.25
Best odds
5.2%
Edge
123
Specialist picks
Best at →
07 Bo Nickal 8-1-0 VS Kyle Daukaus 17-4-0 Bet Bo Nickal 5.0% Edge $1.33 fair $1.27 Prop edge Bo Nickal by Decision Fair $1.46 +
DECIMAL ODDS - MODEL FAIR BY SOURCE
Crowd odds
$1.30
77.0% implied
87 crowd picks
ROI Top 10% odds
$1.24
80.8% implied
10 ROI picks
Specialist odds
$1.23
81.3% implied
26 specialist picks
Blended odds
$1.27
78.9% implied
normalised comparison line
MODEL WEIGHT BLEND - FAIR $1.27
Crowd 51.6%
ROI Top 10% 27.9%
Specialists 20.5%
Blended fair $1.27 78.9% implied
Best bookmaker $1.33
Edge vs book 5.0% best price compared with blended fair
Models aligned on Bo Nickal
US $1.33 / $3.65
US2 $1.31 / $3.60
AU $1.31 / $3.60
UK $1.33 / $3.50
EU $1.32 / $3.80
PROP BETS - METHOD MARKET
35 extracted method picks
DEC Bo Nickal by Decision 24 picks / fair $1.46
DEC Bo Nickal by Decision 24 picks Fair $1.46 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Bo Nickal by Submission 6 picks Fair $5.83 Polymarket - Edge -%
DEC Kyle Daukaus by Decision 2 picks Fair $17.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
KO Bo Nickal by KO/TKO 2 picks Fair $17.50 Polymarket - Edge -%
SUB Kyle Daukaus by Submission 1 picks Fair $35.00 Polymarket - Edge -%
MOST INFLUENTIAL CHANNELS
Ranked by actual influence in the blended line
Artem MMA Style: grappler wt 4.37 ROI cohort + Specialists 15.3% Specialty ROI 68.1% acc 254 specialty bets
MMA Lock of the Night Style: grappler wt 4.21 ROI cohort + Specialists 13.6% Specialty ROI 68.6% acc 261 specialty bets
UFC Predictions Tracker Favorites <= 1.30 wt 3.81 ROI cohort + Specialists 3.8% Specialty ROI 76.1% acc 377 specialty bets
Fight Fiend Forecast Stance: southpaw wt 3.80 ROI cohort + Specialists 7.9% Specialty ROI 64.6% acc 99 specialty bets
MMA EXPERTS Weight class: Middleweight wt 2.17 Specialists 11.3% Specialty ROI 69.6% acc 112 specialty bets
JakeGerberMMA Style: grappler wt 1.97 Specialists 19.5% Specialty ROI 73.4% acc 143 specialty bets
RECOMMENDED BET
Bo Nickal
Middleweight / Fight card
$1.33
Best odds
5.0%
Edge
123
Specialist picks
Best at →
HISTORICAL PROOF Backtest validation/Loading Compact proof
STRATEGY ROI COMPARISON
ROI TOP 10% vs SPECIALISTS - CUMULATIVE UNITS