Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 24, 2024 Past Mexico City , Mexico Mexico Total Weight 1769.882
Channels Engaged
85
Predictions Logged
724
Value Picks Flagged
183
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 724 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 85 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 183 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.61 Jesús Santos Aguilar ROI 1.13x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonça 1.13x ROI
Jesús Santos Aguilar weighted 1.61 Market 2.05 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Farès Ziam vs Claudio Puelles 1.13x ROI
Farès Ziam weighted 1.25 Market 1.48 Crowd 1.26
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Jesús Santos Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonça 0.81x ROI
Mateus Mendonça weighted 2.64 Market 1.74 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Farès Ziam vs Claudio Puelles 0.83x ROI
Claudio Puelles weighted 5.03 Market 2.68 Crowd 4.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Felipe dos Santos vs Victor Altamirano 0.87x ROI
Victor Altamirano weighted 5.76 Market 3.33 Crowd 4.6
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 75.0%
Pure crowd 75.0%
Market favourite 58.3%

Brandon Royval vs Brandon Moreno

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 372.43
ROI Momentum 0.08
Underdog Specialist 4.9
Favorite Reliability 140.46
Weight-Class Ace 41.95
Regional Familiarity 76.05
Value Pick Signal 102.2
Sample Size Confidence 307.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.