Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 02, 2023 Past Austin, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 2166.955
Channels Engaged
109
Predictions Logged
852
Value Picks Flagged
236
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 852 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 109 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 236 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.14 Julia Avila ROI 1.25x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila 1.25x ROI
Julia Avila weighted 2.14 Market 4.69 Crowd 2.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila 0.66x ROI
Miesha Tate weighted 1.88 Market 1.15 Crowd 1.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Drakkar Klose vs Joe Solecki 0.86x ROI
Joe Solecki weighted 2.9 Market 2.07 Crowd 2.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Cody Brundage vs Zachary Reese 0.87x ROI
Cody Brundage weighted 4.62 Market 2.93 Crowd 4.33
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Arman Tsarukyan vs Beneil Dariush

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 459.32
ROI Momentum 3.07
Underdog Specialist 14.43
Favorite Reliability 176.22
Weight-Class Ace 70.72
Regional Familiarity 85.95
Value Pick Signal 124.25
Sample Size Confidence 381.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.