Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 02, 2023 Past Austin, Texas , U.S. U S Total Weight 2116.424
Channels Engaged
110
Predictions Logged
859
Value Picks Flagged
236
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 859 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 110 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 236 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 2.21 Julia Avila ROI 1.24x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila 1.24x ROI
Julia Avila weighted 2.21 Market 4.69 Crowd 2.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Miesha Tate vs Julia Avila 0.68x ROI
Miesha Tate weighted 1.83 Market 1.15 Crowd 1.92
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Drakkar Klose vs Joe Solecki 0.85x ROI
Joe Solecki weighted 3.01 Market 2.07 Crowd 2.83
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Arman Tsarukyan vs Beneil Dariush 0.88x ROI
Arman Tsarukyan weighted 1.6 Market 1.34 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 58.3%

Arman Tsarukyan vs Beneil Dariush

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 433.29
ROI Momentum 4.91
Underdog Specialist 13.31
Favorite Reliability 166.58
Weight-Class Ace 66.35
Regional Familiarity 87.0
Value Pick Signal 126.0
Sample Size Confidence 360.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.