Event Selector

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 21, 2023 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 2392.997
Channels Engaged
150
Predictions Logged
1011
Value Picks Flagged
285
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 1011 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 150 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 285 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.31 Trevor Peek ROI 1.12x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Trevor Peek vs Mohammad Yahya 1.12x ROI
Trevor Peek weighted 1.31 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Trevor Peek vs Mohammad Yahya 0.83x ROI
Mohammad Yahya weighted 4.19 Market 2.47 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov 0.84x ROI
Muin Gafurov weighted 5.21 Market 2.84 Crowd 4.86
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs Bruno Silva 0.85x ROI
Bruno Silva weighted 8.06 Market 3.65 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 81.8%

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 461.97
ROI Momentum -0.46
Underdog Specialist 2.47
Favorite Reliability 208.31
Weight-Class Ace 62.15
Regional Familiarity 101.1
Value Pick Signal 164.85
Sample Size Confidence 381.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.