Event Selector

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 29, 2023 Past Salt Lake City, Utah , U.S. U S Total Weight 2159.246
Channels Engaged
154
Predictions Logged
978
Value Picks Flagged
232
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 978 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 154 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 232 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.4 Kevin Holland ROI 1.11x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa 1.11x ROI
Kevin Holland weighted 1.4 Market 1.66 Crowd 1.39
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Kevin Holland vs Michael Chiesa 0.84x ROI
Michael Chiesa weighted 3.51 Market 2.24 Crowd 3.59
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Uroš Medić vs Matthew Semelsberger 0.86x ROI
Uroš Medić weighted 3.85 Market 2.48 Crowd 3.43
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogério de Lima 0.89x ROI
Marcos Rogério de Lima weighted 1.77 Market 1.47 Crowd 1.76
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 72.7%
Market favourite 72.7%

Justin Gaethje vs Dustin Poirier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 399.76
ROI Momentum -3.84
Underdog Specialist 0.28
Favorite Reliability 172.97
Weight-Class Ace 40.52
Regional Familiarity 109.2
Value Pick Signal 130.55
Sample Size Confidence 331.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.