Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 24, 2023 Past Jacksonville, Florida , U.S. U S Total Weight 1789.438
Channels Engaged
90
Predictions Logged
725
Value Picks Flagged
250
Fight Slots
13
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 725 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 90 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 250 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.16 Randy Brown ROI 1.16x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Randy Brown vs Wellington Turman 1.16x ROI
Randy Brown weighted 1.16 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.21
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Randy Brown vs Wellington Turman 0.79x ROI
Wellington Turman weighted 7.31 Market 2.86 Crowd 5.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Tabatha Ricci vs Gillian Robertson 0.81x ROI
Gillian Robertson weighted 3.49 Market 2.11 Crowd 3.09
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Neil Magny vs Philip Rowe 0.82x ROI
Philip Rowe weighted 4.31 Market 2.42 Crowd 3.7
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 41.7%
Pure crowd 50.0%
Market favourite 50.0%

Ilia Topuria vs Josh Emmett

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 374.47
ROI Momentum 2.75
Underdog Specialist 5.81
Favorite Reliability 136.26
Weight-Class Ace 22.76
Regional Familiarity 84.45
Value Pick Signal 127.75
Sample Size Confidence 310.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.