Event Selector

UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

May 13, 2023 Past Charlotte, North Carolina , U.S. U S Total Weight 513.729
Channels Engaged
18
Predictions Logged
176
Value Picks Flagged
61
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 176 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 18 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 61 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.72 Matt Brown ROI 1.23x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Matt Brown vs Court McGee 1.23x ROI
Matt Brown weighted 1.72 Market 2.81 Crowd 1.67
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman 1.19x ROI
Karl Williams weighted 1.0 Market 1.24 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Market Heat
Matt Brown vs Court McGee 0.73x ROI
Court McGee weighted 2.39 Market 1.45 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman 0.76x ROI
Chase Sherman weighted — Market 4.21 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5
Alex Morono vs Tim Means 0.8x ROI
Tim Means weighted 6.46 Market 2.84 Crowd 5.5
AU, EU, UK, US, US2 Sample 5

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 81.8%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 54.5%

Jailton Almeida vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 128.76
ROI Momentum -1.34
Underdog Specialist -1.64
Favorite Reliability 52.25
Weight-Class Ace 0.79
Regional Familiarity 22.5
Value Pick Signal 30.8
Sample Size Confidence 105.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.