Event Selector

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Feb 04, 2023 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 498.344
Channels Engaged
19
Predictions Logged
172
Value Picks Flagged
54
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 172 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 19 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 54 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 3.09 Jesús Santos Aguilar ROI 1.21x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Tatsuro Taira vs Jesús Santos Aguilar 1.21x ROI
Jesús Santos Aguilar weighted 3.09 Market 8.59 Crowd 2.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Adam Fugitt vs Yusaku Kinoshita 1.15x ROI
Adam Fugitt weighted 2.4 Market 3.81 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov 1.12x ROI
Marcin Tybura weighted 1.39 Market 1.69 Crowd 1.43
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Tatsuro Taira vs Jesús Santos Aguilar 0.74x ROI
Tatsuro Taira weighted 1.48 Market 1.07 Crowd 1.6
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Adam Fugitt vs Yusaku Kinoshita 0.8x ROI
Yusaku Kinoshita weighted 1.72 Market 1.28 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov 0.82x ROI
Blagoy Ivanov weighted 3.54 Market 2.19 Crowd 3.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 10
Weighted model 70.0%
Pure crowd 80.0%
Market favourite 40.0%

Serghei Spivac vs Derrick Lewis

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 125.38
ROI Momentum -0.95
Underdog Specialist -0.26
Favorite Reliability 39.99
Weight-Class Ace 7.18
Regional Familiarity 22.05
Value Pick Signal 29.75
Sample Size Confidence 103.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.