Event Selector

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jan 21, 2023 Past Rio de Janeiro , Brazil Brazil Total Weight 966.538
Channels Engaged
33
Predictions Logged
346
Value Picks Flagged
104
Fight Slots
15
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 346 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 33 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 104 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.45 Nicolas Dalby ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Nicolas Dalby vs Warlley Alves 1.2x ROI
Nicolas Dalby weighted 1.45 Market 2.04 Crowd 1.4
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jéssica Andrade vs Lauren Murphy 1.15x ROI
Jéssica Andrade weighted 1.0 Market 1.18 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Nicolas Dalby vs Warlley Alves 0.74x ROI
Warlley Alves weighted 3.24 Market 1.76 Crowd 3.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jéssica Andrade vs Lauren Murphy 0.79x ROI
Lauren Murphy weighted — Market 4.84 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez 0.82x ROI
Mounir Lazzez weighted 4.42 Market 2.46 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 15
Weighted model 93.3%
Pure crowd 86.7%
Market favourite 66.7%

Jamahal Hill vs Glover Teixeira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 232.53
ROI Momentum -0.45
Underdog Specialist 2.15
Favorite Reliability 83.99
Weight-Class Ace 16.37
Regional Familiarity 39.6
Value Pick Signal 54.95
Sample Size Confidence 191.4

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.