Event Selector

UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Dec 10, 2022 Past 18,455 455 Total Weight 579.448
Channels Engaged
17
Predictions Logged
193
Value Picks Flagged
52
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 193 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 17 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 52 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.24 Erik Silva ROI 1.28x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
T.J. Brown vs Erik Silva 1.28x ROI
Erik Silva weighted 1.24 Market 1.9 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono 1.25x ROI
Santiago Ponzinibbio weighted 1.13 Market 1.57 Crowd 1.14
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula 1.23x ROI
Edmen Shahbazyan weighted 1.0 Market 1.3 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
T.J. Brown vs Erik Silva 0.66x ROI
T.J. Brown weighted 5.25 Market 1.88 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono 0.7x ROI
Alex Morono weighted 8.59 Market 2.41 Crowd 8.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dalcha Lungiambula 0.72x ROI
Dalcha Lungiambula weighted — Market 3.52 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 90.9%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 90.9%

Jan Błachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 140.46
ROI Momentum 0.24
Underdog Specialist 0.74
Favorite Reliability 60.78
Weight-Class Ace 11.28
Regional Familiarity 25.65
Value Pick Signal 31.5
Sample Size Confidence 115.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.