Event Selector

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 22, 2022 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 747.725
Channels Engaged
31
Predictions Logged
262
Value Picks Flagged
106
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 262 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 31 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 106 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.94 Sean O'Malley ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan 1.2x ROI
Sean O'Malley weighted 1.94 Market 3.18 Crowd 1.75
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan 0.75x ROI
Petr Yan weighted 2.07 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Manon Fiorot vs Katlyn Chookagian 0.79x ROI
Manon Fiorot weighted 2.09 Market 1.44 Crowd 2.33
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon 0.79x ROI
Muhammad Mokaev weighted 1.4 Market 1.08 Crowd 1.43
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 173.2
ROI Momentum 0.49
Underdog Specialist 3.01
Favorite Reliability 64.54
Weight-Class Ace 18.43
Regional Familiarity 34.5
Value Pick Signal 49.35
Sample Size Confidence 142.2

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.