Event Selector

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Oct 22, 2022 Past Abu Dhabi , United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Total Weight 679.116
Channels Engaged
21
Predictions Logged
231
Value Picks Flagged
82
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 231 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 21 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 82 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.96 Sean O'Malley ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan 1.2x ROI
Sean O'Malley weighted 1.96 Market 3.18 Crowd 1.82
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Sean O'Malley vs Petr Yan 0.75x ROI
Petr Yan weighted 2.04 Market 1.36 Crowd 2.22
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira 0.76x ROI
Islam Makhachev weighted 2.47 Market 1.55 Crowd 2.71
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Muhammad Mokaev vs Malcolm Gordon 0.77x ROI
Muhammad Mokaev weighted 1.43 Market 1.08 Crowd 1.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 66.7%
Pure crowd 66.7%
Market favourite 75.0%

Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 161.96
ROI Momentum 1.98
Underdog Specialist 3.06
Favorite Reliability 60.12
Weight-Class Ace 17.65
Regional Familiarity 31.2
Value Pick Signal 39.55
Sample Size Confidence 132.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.