Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 09, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 500.194
Channels Engaged
14
Predictions Logged
166
Value Picks Flagged
43
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 166 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 14 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 43 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.31 Ronnie Lawrence ROI 1.2x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Saidyokub Kakhramonov vs Ronnie Lawrence 1.2x ROI
Ronnie Lawrence weighted 1.31 Market 1.78 Crowd 1.38
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Saidyokub Kakhramonov vs Ronnie Lawrence 0.74x ROI
Saidyokub Kakhramonov weighted 4.24 Market 2.0 Crowd 3.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Caio Borralho vs Armen Petrosyan 0.79x ROI
Armen Petrosyan weighted 7.95 Market 2.93 Crowd 7.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Karl Roberson 0.8x ROI
Karl Roberson weighted 4.09 Market 2.23 Crowd 3.67
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 72.7%
Pure crowd 81.8%
Market favourite 63.6%

Rafael Fiziev vs Rafael dos Anjos

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 121.51
ROI Momentum 1.29
Underdog Specialist 2.11
Favorite Reliability 50.37
Weight-Class Ace 15.26
Regional Familiarity 19.2
Value Pick Signal 24.85
Sample Size Confidence 99.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.