Event Selector

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jul 02, 2022 Past 19,649 649 Total Weight 600.966
Channels Engaged
14
Predictions Logged
196
Value Picks Flagged
49
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 196 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 14 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 49 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Jessica-Rose Clark ROI 1.39x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Julija Stoliarenko vs Jessica-Rose Clark 1.39x ROI
Jessica-Rose Clark weighted 1.0 Market 1.63 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jalin Turner vs Brad Riddell 1.3x ROI
Jalin Turner weighted 1.12 Market 1.7 Crowd 1.12
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Pedro Munhoz vs Sean O'Malley 1.23x ROI
Sean O'Malley weighted 1.0 Market 1.31 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Julija Stoliarenko vs Jessica-Rose Clark 0.56x ROI
Julija Stoliarenko weighted — Market 2.29 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Jalin Turner vs Brad Riddell 0.65x ROI
Brad Riddell weighted 9.32 Market 2.19 Crowd 9.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Pedro Munhoz vs Sean O'Malley 0.71x ROI
Pedro Munhoz weighted — Market 3.42 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 90.9%
Pure crowd 90.9%
Market favourite 81.8%

Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 143.82
ROI Momentum 1.62
Underdog Specialist 0.82
Favorite Reliability 67.01
Weight-Class Ace 12.94
Regional Familiarity 27.9
Value Pick Signal 33.25
Sample Size Confidence 117.6

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.