Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Jun 25, 2022 Past — — Total Weight 289.854
Channels Engaged
8
Predictions Logged
95
Value Picks Flagged
22
Fight Slots
12
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 95 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 8 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 22 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Jinh Yu Frey ROI 1.3x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jinh Yu Frey 1.3x ROI
Jinh Yu Frey weighted 1.0 Market 1.42 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot 1.28x ROI
Alan Baudot weighted 1.28 Market 1.97 Crowd 1.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Jinh Yu Frey 0.65x ROI
Vanessa Demopoulos weighted — Market 2.9 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot 0.67x ROI
Josh Parisian weighted 4.62 Market 1.83 Crowd 5.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi 0.68x ROI
Tafon Nchukwi weighted 3.75 Market 1.71 Crowd 4.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 12
Weighted model 58.3%
Pure crowd 58.3%
Market favourite 58.3%

Mateusz Gamrot vs Arman Tsarukyan

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 70.19
ROI Momentum 0.51
Underdog Specialist 0.1
Favorite Reliability 32.18
Weight-Class Ace 7.33
Regional Familiarity 14.25
Value Pick Signal 13.3
Sample Size Confidence 57.0

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.