Event Selector

UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera

We normalise every prediction into a confidence score (weight) using past accuracy, ROI momentum, specialization, geography, and value signals. Those weights form implied odds you can stack against raw crowd counts and bookmaker prices to hunt edges.

Apr 30, 2022 Past Las Vegas, Nevada , U.S. U S Total Weight 492.374
Channels Engaged
15
Predictions Logged
163
Value Picks Flagged
59
Fight Slots
11
Event Signals Updating…
Crowd Volume 163 Predictions logged for this card.
Active Voices 15 Channels contributing weight.
Value Picks 59 Flagged by trusted sources.
Top Edge 1.0 Gina Mazany ROI 1.35x
Confidence score = baseline voice + bonuses below. We normalize fighter totals into decimal odds that you can stack against bookmakers to surface edges.
Baseline Voice +1.0
Every prediction starts at 1.0 weight before bonuses.
Accuracy Edge ×1.2
Scaled by channel-wide hit rate across all tracked picks.
ROI Momentum ×1.0
Rewards sustained profit per moneyline wager compared to market odds.
Underdog Specialist ×0.9
Boosts channels when they beat markets backing plus-money sides.
Favorite Reliability ×0.6
Rewards favorite-heavy channels with elite conversion on chalk picks.
Weight-Class Ace ×0.7
Adds lift when a channel dominates this exact division historically.
Regional Familiarity Local +0.45 / Global +0.15
Channels sharing the event’s home country get the full bonus; others earn a smaller global familiarity boost.
Value Pick Signal ×0.35
Adds conviction when the channel explicitly flags the selection as value.
Sample Size Confidence ×0.6
Logarithmic boost based on verified moneyline bet volume (caps at 0.6).

Edge Radar

How it works

Weighted consensus vs bookmaker decimal odds. ROI > 1.00x = crowd edge.

Value Finds
Shanna Young vs Gina Mazany 1.35x ROI
Gina Mazany weighted 1.0 Market 1.55 Crowd 1.0
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexander Romanov vs Chase Sherman 1.3x ROI
Chase Sherman weighted 2.48 Market 9.74 Crowd 2.25
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Market Heat
Shanna Young vs Gina Mazany 0.6x ROI
Shanna Young weighted — Market 2.49 Crowd —
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Alexander Romanov vs Chase Sherman 0.64x ROI
Alexander Romanov weighted 1.68 Market 1.05 Crowd 1.8
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4
Darren Elkins vs Tristan Connelly 0.77x ROI
Darren Elkins weighted 2.34 Market 1.52 Crowd 2.5
AU, EU, UK, US Sample 4

Post-Fight Scorecard

Resolved fights 11
Weighted model 45.5%
Pure crowd 54.5%
Market favourite 63.6%

Marlon Vera vs Rob Font

Market Snapshot

Loading regional prices…

Wisdom vs Market

No implied odds yet — waiting on predictions or prices.
Select a fight to compare probabilities.

Weight Distribution

Weights convert to implied odds once predictions load.

Method Prophecies

Ranking Spotlight

Informational lens only – rankings here do not alter the weighting model.

Channels with the heaviest influence on this card.

Weight Mix

Total bonuses applied across all predictions (higher = stronger influence).

Accuracy Edge 119.77
ROI Momentum 0.49
Underdog Specialist 1.76
Favorite Reliability 42.03
Weight-Class Ace 11.07
Regional Familiarity 21.45
Value Pick Signal 35.0
Sample Size Confidence 97.8

Channel Track Records

Each voice below shows its event influence, historical accuracy/ROI, and where the weight score found lift. Expand picks to see their exact calls with fighter imagery, odds, and supporting rationale.